Copyright © 2022 Mintec Limited Contents
Grains
Maize (corn) & Wheat
7
In August, the CBOT maize price decreased by 4.7% m-o-m but increased by 14.5% y-o-y, to an average of USD
249/MT. This price decrease was attributed to the rapid progress of the South American harvest. The Brazilian
Safrinha crop was around 65% harvested in August. Although Brazil's harvest progress has been rapid, yields from
region to region are so far variable. This may mean that as more of the crop is brought in, production may be less
than the estimated 86 million metric tonnes. Industry sources have submitted estimates to Mintec of 82-84 million
metric tonnes. Despite the price moving lower on the month, market participants were cautiously bullish for the
month ahead.
a rise in estimates for the US maize production in the 2022/23 season (up 1.1m tonnes) and higher ending stocks.
Despite increased production and grain movement from Ukrainian ports, hot and dry weather in the parts of the US
Midwest remains a watchpoint.
The average price of Euronext maize increased by 1.2% m-o-m and by 45.4% y-o-y, to EUR 326/MT, in August.
The price increase was attributed to continued hot and dry weather across the EU. According to the EU
Commission, the EU 2022/23 maize production estimates have been lowered to 60m tonnes (-15.5% y-o-y), the
lowest production since the 2015/16 season. Spain, France, central and northern Italy, central Germany, Hungary,
Romania, Slovenia and Croatia are among Europe's most affected regions. According to market sources, French
maize prices rose in August and may continue to do so over September. Additionally, EU maize production could
be 25-30% lower y-o-y, which could support the Euronext maize price going forward.
The CBOT wheat average price decreased by 3.1% m-o-m, but increased by 8.6% y-o-y, to USD 295/MT, in
August. This price decrease was attributed to higher-than-expected estimates for the US wheat production in the
2022/23 season, up 0.57m tonnes from the July forecast and 8.3% y-o-y. In addition, news on Ukrainian grain
exports leaving ports and the global recession pressurised the CBOT wheat price. Furthermore, hot and dry
weather in the US remains a watchpoint for the 2022 harvest.
The August average price of Euronext wheat decreased by 1.5% m-o-m, but increased by 33.6% y-o-y, to EUR
323/MT. The price decrease was attributed to the improvement in Ukraine's grain trade flow and thus the wheat
supply. According to market participants, wheat exports via sea from Ukraine totalled 71,500 metric tonnes in
August, significantly below the estimate of 3-5 million metric tonnes. Market players have commented that demand
is returning, which may cause prices to move upward in September. Buyers are showing significant interest in
Ukrainian grain, seeking shipments of wheat for fast delivery, and traders continue to charter new vessels. In
addition, Europe's hot and dry weather is putting wheat crop yield prospects at risk of a downgrade, which could
support the Euronext wheat price going forward.
*Maize CBOT - USD/MT
Aug 20 Nov 20 Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21 Nov 21 Feb 22 May 22 Aug 22
100
130
160
190
220
250
280
310
340
CRNC - Maize no 2 CME Chic US (DH-0)
*Maize Euronext - EUR/MT
Aug 20 Nov 20 Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21 Nov 21 Feb 22 May 22 Aug 22
130
170
210
250
290
330
370
CRNP - Maize yellow A1 Euronext Paris (DH-0)
*Wheat CBOT - USD/MT
Aug 20 Nov 20 Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21 Nov 21 Feb 22 May 22 Aug 22
160
200
240
280
320
360
400
440
WHTC - Wheat milling no 2 CME Chic US (DH-3)
*Wheat Euronext - EUR/MT
Aug 20 Nov 20 Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21 Nov 21 Feb 22 May 22 Aug 22
160
200
240
280
320
360
400
440
WHT2 - Wheat milling Euronext Paris (DH-3)