Softs
Sugar, Cocoa & Coffee
At USc 19.2/Ib, the average ICE NY sugar price (three-month ahead) fell by USc 0.6/Ib (-2.9%) m-o-m,
during December 2021, attributed to speculators liquidating long positions amid falling prices of
Brent crude. However, the NY price increased by USc 4.5/Ib (+30.8%) y-o-y in December 2021,
reflecting comparative tightness against December 2020. At USD 500/MT, the ICE London
benchmark fell by USD 8.0/MT (-1.6%) m-o-m but rose by USD 97.8MT (+24.3%) y-o-y in December
2021, reflecting the same drivers as the NY price.
The average price of London cocoa bean on the ICE fell marginally by GBP 7.5/MT (-0.4%) m-o-m in
December 2021, to GBP 1,690/MT, which also represented a GBP 43.2/MT y-o-y contraction (-2.5%).
At USD 2,482/MT, the NY benchmark fell respectively by USD 25.6/MT (-1.0%) m-o-m, and by USD
97.9/MT (-3.8%) y-o-y over the same periods. Cocoa prices have softened as supply pressures have
eased due to good mid-crop conditions in West Africa and subdued demand sentiment arising from
fears over further COVID-19 lockdowns and sufficient inventories across the key consuming markets.
350
400
450
500
550
10
12
14
16
18
20
Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20
ICE NY sugar - USc/Ib; ICE London sugar - USD/MT
SUGN - Sugar #11 ICE NY (DH-3) (left axis)
300
Mar 21 Jun 21 Sep 21 Dec 21
SGWL - Sugar white #5 ICE London (DH-3) (right axis)
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
1,550
1,650
1,750
1,850
1,950
2,050
Dec 19 Dec 20
ICE London cocoa Bean - GBP/MT; ICE NY cocoa bean - USD/MT
Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20
COCL - Cocoa bean London ICE (DH-3) (left axis)
2,000
Mar 21 Jun 21 Sep 21 Dec 21
COCN - Cocoa bean ICE NY (DH-3) (right axis)
90
150
130
110
170
230
210
190
250
Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 21 Dec 21
ICE NY Coffee Arabica - USc/Ib
Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21
COFN - Coffee arabica ICE NY US (DH-3)
At USc 234/Ib in December 2021, the ICE NY Arabica futures price (three-month ahead) reached the
highest price recorded since October 2011. The December 2021 price increased by USc 10.6/Ib
(+4.7%) m-o-m and by USc 111.9/Ib (+91.4%) y-o-y respectively, on improving demand
fundamentals, juxtaposed against tight supply expectations. The market is braced for subdued supply
from Brazil, the world's largest producer, as the 2022/23 biennial 'on-cycle' harvest approaches. Heavy
frosts across Brazilian arabica-growing regions during the crucial developmental stages of the
2022/23 crop, underpin the supply-side risk, coming on the back of a poor harvest in 2021/22.
The average monthly ICE European Robusta price hit a ten-year high of USD 2,317/MT in December
2021, representing respective growth of USD 125.5/MT (+5.7%) m-o-m and USD 946.9/MT (+69.1%) yo-y.
The robusta bull-run started in April 2021, on the back of supply concerns regarding a lack of
shipping containers that limited exports out of Vietnam, the world's top robusta exporter. Escalating
COVID-19 cases prompted Vietnam to adopt strict social isolation measures in Q3 2021, thus further
restricting farm output and seaborne trade, compounded by rains during the harvest increasing the
risk of post-harvest losses.
1,150
1,350
1,550
1,750
1,950
2,150
2,350
2,550
Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 Jun 21 Sep 21 Dec 21
ICE EU Coffee Robusta - USD/MT
Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
COFL - Coffee robusta London ICE (DH-3)
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