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Softs
Sugar, Cocoa & Coffee
30
At Usc 17.3/Ib, the average ICE NY sugar price (three-month ahead) increased respectively by Usc 1.2/Ib
(+7.3%) m-o-m and Usc 6.5/Ib (+60.1%) y-o-y during May 2021. At an average of USD 459/MT, the respective
ICE London benchmark price increased by USD 11/MT (+2.5%) m-o-m and USD 102/MT (+28.6%) y-o-y over
the corresponding period. The latest prices for both series represent four-year highs, supported by improving
demand fundamentals against tighter supply expectations from major producers, particularly Brazil and Europe.
The average ICE London cocoa bean price increased by GBP 18/MT (+1.1%) m-o-m in May 2021 to GBP
1,662/MT, and the NY benchmark increased by USD 45/MT (+1.8%) m-o-m to USD 2,483/MT; both gained mild
support from speculation regarding supply concerns in West Africa. However, the London price contracted by
GBP 175/MT (-9.5%) y-o-y in May, based on large stocks and low European grindings. The NY price increased
by USD 112/MT (+4.7%) y-o-y, supported by a 15% depreciation of the USD against the GBP and firm y-o-y
grindings.
ICE NY Sugar - Usc/Ibs; ICE London sugar - USD/MT
Jan 19 May 19 Sep 19 Jan 20 May 20 Sep 20 Jan 21 May 21
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
SUGN - Sugar #11 ICE NY (DH-3) (left axis) SGWL - Sugar white #5 ICE London (DH-3) (right axis)
ICE London Cocoa Bean - GBP/MT; ICE NY cocoa bean - USD/MT
Jan 19 May 19 Sep 19 Jan 20 May 20 Sep 20 Jan 21 May 21
1,550
1,650
1,750
1,850
1,950
2,050
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
COCL - Cocoa bean London ICE (DH-3) (left axis) COCN - Cocoa bean ICE NY (DH-3) (right axis)
ICE NY Coffee Arabica - Usc/Ibs
Jan 19 May 19 Sep 19 Jan 20 May 20 Sep 20 Jan 21 May 21
90
100
110
120
130
140
COFN - Coffee arabica ICE NY US (DH-3)
At Usc 151/Ib, the ICE NY arabica futures price (three-month ahead) reached a four-and-a-half-year high monthly
average value of Usc 151.3/Ib in May 2021, This represented respective growth of Usc 17.5/Ib (+13.1%) m-o-m
and Usc 43.9/Ib (+40.9%) y-o-y, The benchmark continues to find support from improving demand, against tight
supply expectations. The market is braced for a large y-o-y shortfall from Brazil, the world's largest producer, as it
enters its 2021/22 biennial 'off-cycle' harvest. A 3.1% y-o-y depreciation of the USD against the BRL also
supported the rally.
The average monthly ICE European Robusta price hit a 27-month high of USD 1,534/MT in May 2021,
representing respective growth of USD 137/MT (+9.8%) m-o-m and USD 323/MT (+26.7%) y-o-y. The rebound is
attributed to supply concerns regarding a lack of shipping containers, which limited exports from Vietnam, the
world's top Robusta exporter. Vietnam's Statistics Office reported that the country's coffee exports fell by 97,536
tonnes (-12%) y-o-y to 715,263 MT during the first-five months of the year.
ICE EU Coffee Robusta - USD/MT
Jan 19 May 19 Sep 19 Jan 20 May 20 Sep 20 Jan 21 May 21
1,150
1,250
1,350
1,450
1,550
1,650
COFL - Coffee robusta London ICE (DH-3)