Copyright © 2021 Mintec Limited Contents
The US orange juice price on the ICE exchange increased by 4% m-o-m to USD 1.23/lbs in June
2021, in line with tighter US orange supplies. The US orange forecast for the 2020/21 season is 4.45
million tonnes, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 15% compared to the 2019/20
season. Orange juice prices have been rangebound in recent months, and the latest price increase
could see prices in the USD 1.2/lb region over the short term.
The Mintec price of Brazilian orange juice rose by 6.4% m-o-m and 2% y-o-y to BRL 7.50/kg in May
2021 (latest available data point), in line with estimates of lower Brazilian orange production.
Declining Brazilian output for the 2020/21 MY capped some of the bearish sentiment in the market in
2021. The Brazilian orange crop is projected at 15.94 million tonnes, and is 10% below the average
crop size for the last ten years and is therefore considered a small crop.
The Mintec price of Chinese apple juice in the US rose by 4% m-o-m and 25.8% y-o-y to USD
9.21/gallons in June 2021. The price increase is due to tighter supplies. Total apple juice concentrate
(AJC) production in China is projected at 400,000-500,000 tonnes for the 2020/21 MY. Furthermore,
higher shipping rates due to the lack of containers continue to impact Chinese exports. However,
Chinese apples are currently in vast supply, and have had minimal impact on the processing cost of
Chinese apple juice.
The Mintec price of EU apple juice declined by 6.1% y-o-y to EUR 1,550/MT in May 2021 (latest
available data point), in line with weaker demand and lower processing costs. Apple juice concentrate
(AJC) production is forecast to be lower for the 2020/21 MY. Despite this, apple juice prices have been
on a downward trend. Production of AJC from Poland, Europe's top producer is projected to reach
200,000 tonnes for the 2020/21 MY, and is over 50% lower than the average yearly crop of around
300,000-350,000 tonnes.