22 • URNER BARRY'S REPORTER / VOL. 19, NO. 1 / WINTER 2024
up to Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, in less than
two weeks' time-and with another two
weeks left until Thanksgiving-prices had
already spiked 45%.
Then, in the second week of November,
spot market bidding started to accelerate
in both volume and value-suggesting that
perhaps this rally was being driven more
by fundamentals than emotion, after all.
The quantity of loads sought after in public
trade climbed to as many as 175-tying the
all-time record and outpacing the number
of offers by more than 12 to 1. Urner Barry's
benchmark Midwest large quotation went
on to increase another 27%-85% in total-
ending the Friday before Thanksgiving at a
seven-month high of $2.46/dozen.
It seemed early in the rally that perhaps
would-be sellers were holding product-
some in search of better value, others out
of fear that they would eventually need to
buy it back at a higher price. But even after
the sharp rise in market values, suppliers
After more than five weeks of no change,
the shell-egg market began its seasonal
ascent in the penultimate week of October,
as it often does, on a combination of
strengthening retail demand and mounting
confidence in the lead-up to Thanksgiving.
Days later, that upward momentum
got kicked into overdrive, following
reports that the bird flu had broken out
on a commercial layer farm for the first
time in 11 months.
Highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)
began making a resurgence among
commercial turkey flocks in the early part
of October but had managed to evade
commercial egg layers since December
2022. However, that all changed on
Halloween when a 940,000-layer
operation in Minnesota tested positive for
the virus. While the number of chickens lost
represented a mere 0.3% of the nation's
total production at that time, it triggered
an immediate impact in the marketplace-
spooking both buyers and sellers alike.
In the days that followed, spot market
buying interest ramped up considerably-
particularly among buyers further
downstream, many of whom were caught
off guard by the sudden turn of events and
now scrambling to cover short positions. At
the same time, offers-which were already
scarce to being with-all but vanished from
the marketplace amid amplified risk and
uncertainty going into the year's strongest
demand period. Negotiated trade values
began to increase not only day-by-day
but often by the hour-a good many of
them confirmed above Urner Barry's
market quotations rather than the typical
"back-of-market" relationship, leading to a
precipitous rise in the market.
By November 7, prices had surged 60cts to
$1.93/dozen-the highest values recorded
since April. Though it's commonplace to
see prices increase at this time of year, the
size of the gains far surpassed the norm.
Over the past five years, prices rose at an
average of 33% in the four weeks leading
When the laws of supply-and-demand are broken…
Bird flu, strong retail demand
send egg prices soaring…
but will consumers see it?
"Negotiated trade values
began to increase not
only day-by-day but
often by the hour..."
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