34 • URNER BARRY'S REPORTER / VOL. 19, NO. 1 / WINTER 2024
In 2023 the Mexican peso emerged as a symbol of economic
resilience, reflecting the country's strong economic growth,
political stability, and the draw of favorable interest rate
differentials. These factors have not only contributed to the peso's
strength but have also enhanced its appeal to investors and
traders in the currency and protein markets.
The performance of the peso is linked to various sectors, including
agricultural trade, which has been significantly influenced by the
currency's strength against the U.S. dollar. Urner Barry Pork Hams
for Export to Mexico 23/27 have been particularly sensitive to the
shifting exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and the peso. A
detailed analysis of the price charts for UB Pork Hams for Export
to Mexico 23/27, when viewed in both USD and pesos, reveals a
notable divergence. In USD terms, the price trends have remained
relatively similar to those of 2022 up until July, then they began
trending below 2022 levels, with HPAI not having as large of
an impact in 2023 as it did in 2022. However, when priced in
pesos, the cost is actually lower than it was in early November
2019, late July 2021, and early November 2022. In contrast, when
priced in USD, the 2023 price levels are higher than those of the
abovementioned dates.
The favorable exchange rate has been valuable for Mexican
buyers, enabling them to procure U.S. pork at more competitive
prices, thereby strengthening their position in the market. This is
particularly significant given the importance of bone-in hams in
Mexico's domestic market, its role in the Mexican labor market, and
the use of exporting boneless material to other countries.
The depreciation of the U.S. dollar at the start of 2023 has been a
catalyst for increased export demand for U.S. pork. According to
the latest USDA report on U.S. Monthly Pork Exports to Mexico as
of September, the total year-to-date U.S. pork exports to Mexico
have increased by 8.4% compared to the same period last year.
When examining the peso currency exchange rate data from
Barchart, it's noted that on July 31, 2023, the peso was recorded
at 16.81 MXN/USD, a rate not seen since 2015, according to the
weekly data. By the end of September, the peso began to trend
slightly upward, averaging around 17.45 MXN/USD for the month.
However, the rate dipped below the 18 MXN/USD mark again in
late October. The most recent data, up to November 6, shows a
rate of 17.59 MXN/USD.
Pesos dance, hams advance…
Peso-dollar exchange
rate impact on Mexico's
bone-in ham pricing
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/lb
Urner Barry Pork Hams for Export to Mexico - 23-27# Trmd
Selected Ham (USD)
Source: Urner Barry
2018 2019 2020
2021 2022 2023
5 Yr Avg
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MXN/Kg
Urner Barry Pork Hams for Export to Mexico - 23-27# Trmd
Selected Ham (Peso)
Source: Urner Barry
2018 2019 2020 2021
2022 2023 5 Yr Avg
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
$22.00
$24.00
$26.00
Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
Peso
Foreign Exchange Rates, Mexico, Peso
Source: Bar Chart
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
$/lb Urner Barry Bnls/Sknls Thigh Meat vs UB Pork Hams for
Export to Mexico 23/37
Source: Urner Barry
Turkey, Fz Exp, Bnls/Sknls Thigh Mt, EP
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