40 • URNER BARRY'S REPORTER / VOL. 19, NO. 1 / WINTER 2024
proportionately with the appreciation of the exchange rate. This
consistently showed prices above the previous year, challenging
typical seasonal patterns.
The high demand in the domestic market resulted in a significant
portion of the available beef supply being committed to in
advance. Buyers have been quick to secure inventories to
accomplish their business needs. This situation led to a shortage of
available material in the spot market throughout the year.
However, not all items maintained this stability. For instance,
filets exhibited significant price fluctuations throughout the year.
The short loin also experienced pockets of volatility, while prices
typically trended in a seasonal pattern, periods of brisk buying
brought prices nearly 50% higher than year ago levels.
In summary, 2023 saw a notably stronger performance in the
Mexican domestic market compared to preceding years, exerting
a significant impact on the export market prices. The interaction
between economic variables, the introduction of new participants
like Brazilian meat, and evolving market dynamics set a challenging
environment where adaptability, timing, and strategic decisionmaking has proved to be crucial.
Article contributed by Jaime Almeida
jalmeida@urnerbarry.com
The Mexican beef market has exhibited a dynamic performance on
various fronts throughout the year. The export and the domestic
market have sustained significant activity, leading to a notable
increase in prices compared to the previous year. This surge has
come with some atypical trends when compared to historical data.
One key factor contributing to this atypical activity in the Mexican
export market is the unprecedented depreciation of the U.S. dollar
against the Mexican peso. With quotes unseen since 2015, this
stems from various macroeconomic factors and has significantly
impacted the pricing dynamics. The depreciation of the dollar
in 2023 reached up to 17% against the peso when compared to
January quotes. This marks the lowest record for the last seven
years, taking stakeholders off guard, who had initially anticipated
an exchange rate increase of approximately 2% to 4%. This is
what the Mexican central bank forecasted at the very beginning
of the year.
This unforeseen shift prompted Mexican sellers to reconsider their
strategies, favoring the Mexican domestic market over Mexican
exports. The domestic market, in turn, experienced stronger
offers, pushed by the limited product availability for certain beef
products, particularly end cuts. These cuts displayed firmer
quotations and a greater presence domestically compared to
abroad. Sellers experienced higher returns selling domestically
rather than exporting. This was a consequence of the fact that
the increase in prices within the export market did not align
Mexican export market…
Factors that shaped the Mexican
beef market in 2023
$16.00
$16.50
$17.00
$17.50
$18.00
$18.50
$19.00
$19.50
$20.00
$20.50
$21.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mx pesos / Us Dollar
2022 2023
Foreign Exchange Rates, Mexico, Peso
Source: Urner Barry
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
$2.60 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/lb
2022 2023
Urner Barry MB Hind Shank for Exp
Source: Urner Barry
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/lb
2022 2023
Urner Barry MB 174 Short Loin for Exp
Source: Urner Barry
"The high demand in the domestic
market resulted in a significant portion
of the available beef supply being
committed to in advance."