8 • URNER BARRY'S REPORTER / VOL. 19, NO. 1 / WINTER 2024
North American fertilizer prices surged to
a record high in April 2022 at $1,270.4,
based on Green Markets North America
Fertilizer Price Index. Prices have since
eased to $552.69 as of November 3, 2023,
driven in part by declining prices for crops
and natural gas.
GRAINS AND OILSEEDS
Ukraine is referred to as the "breadbasket
of Europe" since more than half of Ukraine's
land is arable. Agricultural products are
Ukraine's most valuable exports.
Corn: Ukraine is the world's sixth-largest
corn producer and is among the world's
largest corn exporters. Corn futures on
the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
surged to $8.16 per bushel in April 2022-
a seasonal all-time high.
Corn futures have since declined sharply,
with December corn priced at $4.63 per
bushel as of November 10, 2023-a yearto-date (YTD) decrease of 30%.
An anticipated large U.S. corn harvest,
combined with increased competition from
suppliers like Brazil and Argentina, have
pressured corn prices lower.
Wheat: Russia is the world's leading wheat
exporter, while Ukraine ranks among the
world's top wheat exporters. Both countries
are key suppliers to markets including the
Middle East and North Africa.
Most of Ukraine's wheat production
comprises of winter wheat, which is
planted from September to mid-November.
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of
Ukraine, resulting in far-reaching ramifications to human life and
for the global marketplace.
Both Russia and Ukraine are among the world's most significant
producers and exporters of agricultural goods. The two countries
play a critical role in supplying the global market with critical
commodities like fertilizer, grains, and oilseeds.
Prior to the invasion, global food and
energy prices were already elevated.
This was due in part to reduced supplies
in major exporting countries caused by
drought, along with pandemic-induced
snags in the supply chain.
The near-term effects of the Russia-Ukraine
war exacerbated high prices for various
goods, with the ripple effects carrying on to
this day.
Mintec Global closely monitors the
war's impact on the global agricultural
marketplace. Below, we explore the
ongoing ramifications of the war as it
approaches its two-year mark in 2024.
FERTILIZER
Fertilizers are chemical compounds that
provide essential nutrients for plant growth.
They are broadly split into organic and
inorganic or commercial. Fertilizers provide
three main nutrients: nitrogen, phosphorus,
and potassium.
Russia is the world's leading fertilizer
exporter, as well as a major supplier of
natural gas, which is the raw material for
nitrogen fertilizer.
Fertilizer prices were on the rise since early
2020 due to supply chain complications
combined with tight supplies. Western
sanctions and trade restrictions on Russia's
natural gas exports caused fertilizer prices
to spike shortly after the invasion.
How are commodity prices reacting to global unrest?
The initial shock from the invasion sent
CME wheat futures to a record $14.25 per
bushel in March 2022. Wheat prices have
retreated to about $5.76 per bushel as
of November 10, 2023, bringing the YTD
decrease to nearly 23%.
According to November's World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
report, Russian wheat production was
forecast at 90 million tons, up 5 million
from the October projection.
Ample Russian wheat supplies combined
with reduced global use have contributed
to a consistent decline in wheat prices
since the start of 2023.
Soybeans: Ukraine is the world's ninthlargest producer and seventh-largest
exporter of soybeans. Soybeans in Ukraine
are planted from April through May and
harvested August through September.
CME soybean futures hit seasonal all-time
highs in Q2 2022, ranging from about
$16.80 to $16.90 a bushel. Soybean futures
softened to $13.40 a bushel by November
10, 2023, notching a 12% YTD decrease.
Competitively priced and large supplies
from suppliers like Brazil, coupled with a
rapidly progressing U.S. harvest season
and subdued demand from China, have
pressured soybean prices lower.
Two years in: Russia-Ukraine war's
impact on the agricultural marketplace
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