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in the latter. To combat further domestic
price increases, the Turkish Trade Ministry,
on 1st August, suspended olive oil exports
until 1st November, aggravating the current
supply tightness in the market.
Despite the unprecedented price levels
and supply tightness, consumption levels
and demand remain high, with industry
players still reportedly scrambling to
secure supplies, driven by the looming risk
10.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) increase,
representing a 113% rise compared to the
same period in the previous year.
Spain accounts for a significant share of
global olive oil production (c.67%) and
exports, highlighting its key influence on
the global olive oil market. The European
Commission (EC) estimates Spanish olive
oil output for the 2022/23 season at
663,000 tonnes, a decline of 56% on the
year, down 53% compared to the five-year
average, on the back of the severe drought
plaguing the country. According to market
sources, for the 2023/24 season, Spanish
olive oil output is estimated to recover
slightly on the year, with trade estimates
averaging 720,000 tonnes (+8.6% y-o-y).
However, the estimated y-o-y rise in output
remains below average seasonal levels
(down 44% vs. the five-year average), with
growing concerns about the negative
impact of the prolonged dryness on the
upcoming harvest, which typically occurs
around October-February in the Northern
Hemisphere, exacerbating the bullish
sentiment in the global olive oil market.
The shortfall in production has also led to
a decline in stocks as players scramble to
secure supply, with the rate of drawdown
likely to lead to a runout in supply
before any fresh supply is obtained from
the new harvest.
In other EU-producing countries, Italy,
France and Portugal, dryness has also
impacted olive oil production levels, with
yearly declines of 27%, 39% and 39%,
respectively, for the 2022/23 season,
supporting prices in these countries.
Production in Greece is estimated to be
higher by 47% y-o-y at 340,000 tonnes;
the increase is not substantial enough to
offset losses in other olive oil-producing
countries, with higher domestic and global
demand supporting prices. Accordingly,
the MBP for Olive Oil Extra Virgin ex-works
Bari IT, and the MBP for Olive Oil Extra
Virgin Crete GR climbed by 97.8% y-o-y
and 107.8% y-o-y to €9/kg ($9,844.3/mt)
and €8/kg ($8,750.49/mt), respectively,
on 2nd August.
The severity of the olive oil supply situation
and the unprecedented price levels have
led many players, including Spain, Italy and
Greece, to switch to Turkish purchases,
consequently increasing domestic prices
of running out of stock and the likelihood
of further price increases in the coming
months. For seafood canners that choose
to differentiate their products with olive oil,
the concerns will remain to face squeezing
margins or to substroxanne.nikoro@mintecglobal.comper alternatives.
Article contributed by Roxanne Nikoro
roxanne.nikoro@mintecglobal.com
2
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9
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Aug-21 Nov-21 Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22 Nov-22 Feb-23 May-23 Aug-23
€/kg EU olive oil price comparison
8G39 - Olive oil ex-virg Anda ES (MBP) OO01 - Olive oil ex-virg Bari IT (MBP)
OO15 - Olive oil ex-virg Crete GR (MBP)
Source: Mintec Analytics